The global wind energy market will surpass the one-terawatt (TW) installed capacity threshold by the end of 2023. After taking over 40 years to reach a TW of installations, the wind industry will reach the next TW of installations in the next eight years, indicating a significant acceleration in growth.
In the next decade, there will also be a greater focus on offshore wind as the sector matures and technological innovation and supply chain development make offshore wind development more accessible in various regions. The global offshore wind sector will multiply by seven by 2032 and represent 26 % of total capacity in the next ten years.
Promoters will add capacity in 30 countries in the next decade, although European countries and China will account for 81% of global capacity in the 10-year horizon. The Chinese wind market is expected to rebound strongly in 2023, with promoters almost doubling the amount of annual capacity compared to 2022, thanks to a record year of new wind turbine orders in the country. Over the projected 10 years, annual capacity added in China will average 80 GW and represent 5 % of new global capacity.
Excluding China, the rest of the world added 44 GW in 2022, representing a 4 % year-on-year decrease. A challenging mix of inflation and supply chain disruption caused over 3 GW of projects to be delayed until 2023 and beyond, providing a boost to short-term prospects. In the US, promoters are awaiting Treasury guidelines on the eligibility of tax credits, and current uncertainty is affecting short-term installations. However, with political clarity, approval and investment in transmission projects, and the development of the nascent offshore market supply chain, annual additions will intensify and reach an average of 20 GW per year between 2026 and 2032.
Over the projected 10 years, more than 343 GW of onshore and offshore capacity will be added in Europe, as the energy crisis motivates several countries to strengthen existing capacity targets. Offshore wind will represent 39 % of new capacity, although growth in onshore wind in emerging markets in Eastern Europe and Uzbekistan, and the repowering of aging fleets in more mature markets such as Germany and Spain, will also contribute.
Green hydrogen will support demand in the Middle East and Africa, resulting in a total capacity increase of 72 GW during the projected 10 years. Development in the region remains modest in the short term, but will exceed the 5 GW per year barrier in 2025 and maintain its momentum until 2032, with an average annual growth rate of 42 % during the forecast period.
Source: El periódico de la energía